Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

CEA Finds ARRA Continues to Spur Growth and Jobs

Apr 15, 2010

The President's Council of Economic Advisers released their third quarterly report yesterday on the economic impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (the stimulus). They estimate that the $862 billion stimulus has increased GDP by between 2.5 and 2.9 percent (in the first quarter of 2010) and cumulative employment by between 2.2 and 2.8 million, relative to what they would have been absent the stimulus.

These figures are up from CEA's estimates back in early January, which showed the stimulus adding between 1.5 and 3 percent to GDP while boosting employment by 1.5 to 2 million. In the January outlook, CBO said that the effects of ARRA should peak in the first half of 2010. The number released by CEA seem to confirm that ARRA added more to the economy in Q1 2010 than any previous quarter, but it will be interesting to see how much longer the stimulus will sustain such boosts to economic growth and employment.

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Based on data provided on Recovery.gov, CRFB estimates that over $360 billion in stimulus fund have already been paid out, with another roughly $250 billion slated to be paid out in FY 2010. CRFB will continue to track stimulus and recovery spending at Stimulus.org.

Make sure to read CRFB analysis of the first year of the stimulus here: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: One Year Later.